ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
67-61 | Road
7
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
68-59 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 7-1 | 3.11 | 1.13 | 92.2 | 61 |
| Payton Tolle | 8-6 | 2.97 | 1.06 | 115.0 | 128 |
7-1
W-L
8-6
3.11
ERA
Ldr 2.97
1.13
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
92.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 115.0
61
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
64%
RED SOX
36%
▲ Edge: +23.30% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
Book Odds: +148
RED SOX
61%
Book Odds: -159
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.0
50%
Under 8.0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.7
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Boston
3.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Boston
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ARI @ BOS
7 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ARI @ BOS
4 - 9
Aug 17, 2026
ARI @ BOS
1 - 11
Sep 7, 2025
BOS @ ARI
7 - 4
Sep 6, 2025
BOS @ ARI
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720
▲
OPS
.409
166
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+78.1% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.0% more
Arizona: 7.0
vs
Boston: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.7
7
BOS Score
3.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.3 / 7.3
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 7.0
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.5 / 12.3
18.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.2
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+148 / -159
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ARI
BOS
ARI
ML
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
91-70
48%
79-84
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
72-83-5
52%
80-73-8
47%
74-83-6
49%
73-77-9
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