Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Mets SD @ NYM

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

68-60  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Aug 19 • 1:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

58-70  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Robert Stock
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Stock

#89 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael King 8-8 3.41 1.19 142.1 124
Robert Stock 0-2 6.57 1.86 12.1 13
8-8 W-L 0-2
3.41 Ldr ERA 6.57
1.19 Ldr WHIP 1.86
142.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 12.1
124 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 13
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
61%
📊
METS
39%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (SD)
PADRES 58% Book Odds: -136
METS 44% Book Odds: +126
Book Implied: 57.60% / 44.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 (Over)
Over 8.5 71%
Under 8.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 MetsNYM (+1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

37.3%

Mets Cover

62.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
4.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.3
C
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.9
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925 ▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.5% more
San Diego: 2.0 vs New York: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs New York: 4.3
Walks (L5) +27.6% more
San Diego: 3.7 vs New York: 2.7
OPS (Season) +22.0%
San Diego: 92.5% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.1 2
NYM Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.5 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.6 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 14.8 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +108 → -136 / +126 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
77%TICKETS23%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
52%TICKETS48%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50% 79-80
51% 85-83
48% 76-83
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 91-77
49% 78-81
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 80-66-13
51% 82-80-6
51% 74-72-13
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 42 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 50 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 53 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours, 49 minutes ago