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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

62-65  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

75-50  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Soriano
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Soriano

#40 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Soriano 9-6 3.16 1.25 133.2 134
Nick Martinez 12-3 2.74 1.09 138.0 78
9-6 W-L 12-3
3.16 ERA Ldr 2.74
1.25 WHIP Ldr 1.09
133.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 138.0
134 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 78
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
48%
📊
RAYS
52%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS 46% Book Odds: +119
RAYS 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 45.70% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 7.5 47%
Under 7.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

52.0%

Rays Cover

48.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.1%

TOR By 3-4 runs

13.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
3.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 TOR @ TB 5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 TOR @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026 TOR @ TB 10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026 TB @ TOR 1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 TB @ TOR 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .728
152
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +143.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7 vs Toronto: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +73.7% more
Tampa Bay: 17.6 vs Toronto: 10.1
Hits (L5) +37.9% more
Tampa Bay: 10.9 vs Toronto: 7.9
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.3 vs Toronto: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.4 10
TB Score 3.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.9 / 7.9 13.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.5 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 10.1 13.0 / 29.0
Walks 2.4 / 4.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156 → +119 / -128 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
62%TICKETS38%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58% 95-68
46% 74-87
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 90-71
55% 90-73
49% 79-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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