NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
70-55 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
61-65 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carlos Rodon
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 4-2 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 46.1 | 52 |
| Shane Baz | 4-12 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 139.1 | 122 |
4-2
W-L
4-12
3.30 Ldr
ERA
4.00
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
46.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.1
52
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 122
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
53%
ORIOLES
47%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (NYY)
YANKEES
52%
Book Odds: -106
ORIOLES
50%
Book Odds: -101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 8.5
48%
Under 8.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.9%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
3.9
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
New York
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041
▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+33.0%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.8%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+14.1%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.2
3
BAL Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.9 / 5.8
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.7
9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
19.0 / 9.5
7.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-106 / -101
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53%
83-73
47%
76-85
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
53%
86-76
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-6
53%
82-72-7
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