ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
66-60 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
67-58 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Bratt
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alec Gamboa
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | 1-1 | 3.74 | 1.40 | 33.2 | 25 |
| Alec Gamboa | 0-0 | 1.59 | 1.12 | 17.0 | 12 |
1-1
W-L
0-0
3.74
ERA
Ldr 1.59
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
33.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
17.0
25 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
12
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
RED SOX
50%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
Book Odds: +121
RED SOX
57%
Book Odds: -130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.3 (Under)
Over 9.0
39%
Under 9.0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.9
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Boston
3.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Boston
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ARI @ BOS
7 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ARI @ BOS
4 - 9
Aug 17, 2026
ARI @ BOS
1 - 11
Sep 7, 2025
BOS @ ARI
7 - 4
Sep 6, 2025
BOS @ ARI
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720
▲
OPS
.409
166
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+78.1% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+53.6% more
Arizona: 1.8
vs
Boston: 0.9
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.9
1
BOS Score
3.8
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.1
16.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 7.3
0.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 17.0
29.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+121 / -130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ARI
BOS
ARI
ML
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
91-70
48%
79-84
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
72-83-5
52%
80-73-8
47%
74-83-6
49%
73-77-9
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