SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
59-66 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
63-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 8-8 | 4.15 | 1.10 | 132.1 | 132 |
| Hunter Brown | 3-2 | 3.68 | 1.27 | 63.2 | 67 |
8-8
W-L
3-2
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.68
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.27
132.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
63.2
132 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
67
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
40%
ASTROS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (HOU)
MARINERS
47%
Book Odds: +112
ASTROS
55%
Book Odds: -120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
68%
Under 7.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693
▲
OPS
.582
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+75.0% more
Houston: 1.0
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+38.0% more
Houston: 1.3
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.2
3
HOU Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.4
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.8
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 16.1
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.0
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132
→
+112 / -120
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50%
81-82
50%
81-81
47%
77-87
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
98-64
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
85-67-10
45%
69-86-9
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…