WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
60-66 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
56-69 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 2-6 | 5.79 | 1.32 | 65.1 | 66 |
| Christian Scott | 3-3 | 3.45 | 1.30 | 78.1 | 98 |
2-6
W-L
3-3
5.79
ERA
Ldr 3.45
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 1.30
65.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 78.1
66
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 98
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
43%
METS
57%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (WSH)
NATIONALS
41%
Book Odds: +147
METS
63%
Book Odds: -172
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.5
62%
Under 8.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.9%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
5.3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744
▲
OPS
.705
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
New York: 0.3
vs
Washington: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+16.5% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Washington: 1.3
Walks (L5)
+30.2% more
Washington: 4.5
vs
New York: 3.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.4
3
NYM Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.0
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 10.0
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 13.3
17.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+147 / -172
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50%
79-80
57%
92-69
48%
76-83
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
57%
91-70
TTL
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-78-6
51%
74-72-13
42%
65-90-6
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