NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
69-55 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
61-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Weathers
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | 5-7 | 3.69 | 1.21 | 126.2 | 136 |
| Dylan Cease | 7-5 | 2.40 | 1.07 | 131.1 | 191 |
5-7
W-L
7-5
3.69
ERA
Ldr 2.40
1.21
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
126.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 131.1
136
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 191
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
56%
BLUE JAYS
44%
▲ Edge: +8.60% (NYY)
YANKEES
48%
Book Odds: +110
BLUE JAYS
54%
Book Odds: -118
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 6.5
62%
Under 6.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.1
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
B
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041
▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+55.6% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.2
OPS (Season)
+34.9%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.1
4
TOR Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 5.6
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.0
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 8.8
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -123
→
+110 / -118
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46%
74-87
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-72-7
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