ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
66-59 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
74-50 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Soroka
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | 8-3 | 2.92 | 1.10 | 86.1 | 83 |
| Bryce Elder | 8-7 | 4.03 | 1.25 | 131.2 | 108 |
8-3
W-L
8-7
2.92 Ldr
ERA
4.03
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.25
86.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 131.2
83
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 108
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
BRAVES
37%
▲ Edge: +16.90% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +115
BRAVES
55%
Book Odds: -124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 9.0
42%
Under 9.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.7
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+40.5% more
Arizona: 10.6
vs
Atlanta: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+40.1% more
Arizona: 19.5
vs
Atlanta: 11.7
Home Runs (L5)
+33.7% more
Arizona: 1.8
vs
Atlanta: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.7
3
ATL Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 10.6
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.5
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 19.5
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131
→
+115 / -124
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
ARI
ATL
ARI
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
80-73-8
49%
76-80-11
49%
73-77-9
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