BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
61-63 | Road
10
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
74-49 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 7-8 | 4.21 | 1.25 | 119.2 | 102 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5-9 | 5.33 | 1.50 | 123.1 | 121 |
7-8
W-L
5-9
4.21 Ldr
ERA
5.33
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.50
119.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 123.1
102
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 121
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
63%
RAYS
37%
▲ Edge: +18% (BAL)
ORIOLES
45%
Book Odds: +124
RAYS
59%
Book Odds: -143
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
64%
Under 7.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
14.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
3.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.728
199
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.5% more
Baltimore: 2.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.9% more
Baltimore: 10.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.8
Home Runs (Season)
+15.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Walks (L5)
+37.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.1
vs
Baltimore: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
10
TB Score
3.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.1 / 9.4
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 10.0
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 16.5
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.0
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146
→
+124 / -143
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
58%
95-68
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
97-66
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-73
57%
90-68-1
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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