ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
66-58 | Road
10
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
73-50 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 11-4 | 2.70 | 1.23 | 143.1 | 101 |
| Grant Holmes | 7-4 | 3.47 | 1.32 | 114.0 | 94 |
11-4
W-L
7-4
2.70 Ldr
ERA
3.47
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
143.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
114.0
101 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
94
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
BRAVES
42%
▲ Edge: +11.80% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +115
BRAVES
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 9.0
41%
Under 9.0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+31.2% more
Arizona: 9.4
vs
Atlanta: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+26.9% more
Arizona: 15.8
vs
Atlanta: 11.5
Walks (L5)
+26.0% more
Arizona: 3.3
vs
Atlanta: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.4
10
ATL Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 9.4
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 7.2
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 15.8
12.0 / 27.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.3
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+115 / -135
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
ARI
ATL
ARI
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
80-73-8
49%
76-80-11
49%
73-77-9
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