Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Mets WSH @ NYM

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-65  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

55-69  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brad Lord
STARTING PITCHER

Brad Lord

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brad Lord 5-2 3.79 1.18 61.2 56
Sean Manaea 4-5 4.13 1.32 104.2 106
5-2 W-L 4-5
3.79 Ldr ERA 4.13
1.18 Ldr WHIP 1.32
61.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 104.2
56 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 106
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
51%
📊
METS
49%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (WSH)
NATIONALS 45% Book Odds: +121
METS 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 45.20% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 7.5 63%
Under 7.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

51.0%

Mets Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +15.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Strikeouts (L5) +12.4% more
Washington: 8.9 vs New York: 7.8
Hits (L5) +9.6% more
Washington: 8.5 vs New York: 7.7
OPS (Season) +3.9%
Washington: 74.4% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.7 4
NYM Score 4.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.5 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.9 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 12.5 13.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.3 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / +119 → +121 / -130 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 47 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 5 hours, 56 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 6 hours, 1 minute ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 45 minutes ago