Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Giants COL @ SF

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

49-74  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 15 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

51-72  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael Lorenzen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Lorenzen

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Lorenzen 3-10 6.83 1.88 112.0 81
Logan Webb 7-7 3.59 1.08 133.0 103
3-10 W-L 7-7
6.83 ERA Ldr 3.59
1.88 WHIP Ldr 1.08
112.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 133.0
81 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 103
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
22%
📊
GIANTS
78%
▲ Edge: +14% (SF)
ROCKIES 39% Book Odds: +155
GIANTS 64% Book Odds: -179
Book Implied: 39.20% / 64.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 74%
Under 7.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 GiantsSF (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

19.8%

Giants Cover

80.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

9.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

4.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3
6.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Rockies Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.4
A
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
San Francisco: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.6
Walks (L5) +35.9% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +34.7% more
Colorado: 1.2 vs San Francisco: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +27.8% more
Colorado: 7.7 vs San Francisco: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.3 1
SF Score 6.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.2 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 7.7 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 13.3 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.6 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +147 / -178 → +155 / -179
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
23%TICKETS77%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Yankees' Cam Schlittler Transforms Curveball into Lethal Weapon,…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 6 hours ago
White Sox Turn to Anthony Kay as Opener for Game 2, Aiming to St…
si 3 days, 18 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 1 hour ago