MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
75-48 | Road
1
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
74-49 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | 3-4 | 4.57 | 1.22 | 67.0 | 61 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 11-7 | 2.65 | 0.89 | 139.1 | 127 |
3-4
W-L
11-7
4.57
ERA
Ldr 2.65
1.22
WHIP
Ldr 0.89
67.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.1
61
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 127
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
42%
DODGERS
58%
▲ Edge: +3% (MIL)
BREWERS
39%
Book Odds: +155
DODGERS
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.7 (Over)
Over 7.5
74%
Under 7.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIL @ LAD
6 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
MIL @ LAD
4 - 1
Aug 14, 2026
MIL @ LAD
1 - 3
Aug 13, 2026
MIL @ LAD
5 - 4
May 24, 2026
LAD @ MIL
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.743
OPS
▲
.762
154
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.3
vs
Milwaukee: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+32.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Total Bases (L5)
+23.0% more
Los Angeles: 12.6
vs
Milwaukee: 10.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.1%
Los Angeles: 42.4%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.6
1
LAD Score
5.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.6
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.3
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 10.2
15.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.9 / 6.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +147 / -178
→
+155 / -180
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
LAD
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIL
LAD
MIL
ML
56%
92-73
62%
101-61
48%
79-87
52%
84-78
ATS
59%
98-67
58%
94-68
43%
72-94
48%
78-84
TTL
48%
77-82-6
40%
62-92-8
44%
70-90-6
50%
77-77-8
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