Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Astros SEA @ HOU

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

57-66  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

63-60  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
@
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Kirby 8-9 3.68 1.27 132.0 112
Peter Lambert 8-6 3.09 1.15 113.2 111
8-9 W-L 8-6
3.68 ERA Ldr 3.09
1.27 WHIP Ldr 1.15
132.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 113.2
112 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 111
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
37%
📊
ASTROS
63%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (HOU)
MARINERS 48% Book Odds: +109
ASTROS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 47.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

63.7%

Astros Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
4.9
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Astros Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 HOU @ SEA 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026 HOU @ SEA 7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026 SEA @ HOU 3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026 SEA @ HOU 10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026 SEA @ HOU 7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693 ▲
OPS
.582
182 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +65.5% more
Seattle: 1.4 vs Houston: 0.5
Walks (L5) +29.8% more
Seattle: 3.8 vs Houston: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.5 7
HOU Score 4.9 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.6 / 6.0 12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.8 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 10.8 20.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131 → +109 / -126 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
46%TICKETS54%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50% 81-82
50% 81-81
47% 77-87
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 98-64
55% 90-74
59% 95-67
TTL
45% 70-84-9
56% 85-67-10
45% 69-86-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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