ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
65-58 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
73-49 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 6-1 | 3.36 | 1.20 | 85.2 | 54 |
| Chris Sale | 12-7 | 2.20 | 1.02 | 123.0 | 151 |
6-1
W-L
12-7
3.36
ERA
Ldr 2.20
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 1.02
85.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 123.0
54
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 151
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
BRAVES
54%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
Book Odds: +172
BRAVES
67%
Book Odds: -200
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.0
46%
Under 8.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
3.9
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Arizona
2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.20
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+57.6% more
Atlanta: 1.9
vs
Arizona: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+56.3% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
Arizona: 5.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.5
2
ATL Score
3.9
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.1
3.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 5.3
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 15.7
3.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +169 / -207
→
+172 / -200
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
ARI
ATL
ARI
ML
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
54%
86-74
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
56%
89-71
TTL
53%
83-73-11
52%
80-73-8
49%
76-80-11
49%
73-77-9
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