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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

60-64  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

54-69  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Alvarez

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Robert Stock
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Stock

#89 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Alvarez 2-3 3.76 1.40 69.1 65
Robert Stock 0-2 10.13 2.13 8.0 8
2-3 W-L 0-2
3.76 Ldr ERA 10.13
1.40 Ldr WHIP 2.13
69.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 8.0
65 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 8
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
67%
📊
METS
33%
▲ Edge: +18.10% (WSH)
NATIONALS 49% Book Odds: +105
METS 55% Book Odds: -122
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 (Over)
Over 8.5 81%
Under 8.5 19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

68.3%

Mets Cover

31.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

18.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
5.1
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 12.1
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +23.1% more
Washington: 9.4 vs New York: 7.2
Hits (L5) +21.6% more
Washington: 10.3 vs New York: 8.1
Runs per Game (Season) +15.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
Washington: 0.2 vs New York: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 7.0 1
NYM Score 5.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 10.3 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 16.3 14.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +105 / -122 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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