SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
66-57 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
59-64 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 7-8 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 136.1 | 120 |
| Gavin Williams | 11-6 | 3.55 | 1.04 | 144.2 | 185 |
7-8
W-L
11-6
3.37 Ldr
ERA
3.55
1.17
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
136.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 144.2
120
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 185
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
69%
GUARDIANS
31%
▲ Edge: +21.70% (SD)
PADRES
48%
Book Odds: +110
GUARDIANS
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 7.5
67%
Under 7.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
3.3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Cleveland
2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
SD @ CLE
5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026
SD @ CLE
1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026
SD @ CLE
7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
CLE @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025
CLE @ SD
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.925
▲
OPS
.696
4
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.8% more
San Diego: 1.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+33.7% more
San Diego: 16.3
vs
Cleveland: 10.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.6% more
San Diego: 6.3
vs
Cleveland: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.3
7
CLE Score
3.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.5
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
4.5 / 6.3
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 16.3
19.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+110 / -131
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SD
CLE
SD
ML
54%
87-75
51%
85-83
49%
80-83
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
93-69
54%
91-77
58%
95-68
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
89-71-2
51%
82-80-6
44%
70-90-2
54%
86-74-6
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