KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
49-73 | Road
2
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
73-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eric Lauer
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | 4-3 | 2.45 | 1.01 | 47.2 | 37 |
| Eric Lauer | 6-6 | 4.89 | 1.26 | 92.0 | 57 |
4-3
W-L
6-6
2.45 Ldr
ERA
4.89
1.01 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
47.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 92.0
37
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 57
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
DODGERS
50%
▲ Edge: +16.20% (KC)
ROYALS
34%
Book Odds: +198
DODGERS
69%
Book Odds: -218
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.3 (Under)
Over 9.0
39%
Under 9.0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.3%
LAD By 1-2 runs
18.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Los Angeles
3.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
KC @ LAD
2 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
KC @ LAD
4 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
KC @ LAD
5 - 6
Jun 29, 2025
LAD @ KC
5 - 1
Jun 28, 2025
LAD @ KC
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.718
OPS
▲
.762
170
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6
vs
Kansas City: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+28.0% more
Los Angeles: 8.5
vs
Kansas City: 6.6
Total Bases (L5)
+20.9% more
Los Angeles: 13.3
vs
Kansas City: 11.0
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.8
2
LAD Score
3.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.6
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 9.4
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.0
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +193 / -238
→
+198 / -218
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
KC
LAD
KC
ML
56%
92-73
55%
89-72
48%
79-87
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
98-67
57%
91-70
43%
72-94
58%
93-67
TTL
48%
77-82-6
58%
90-64-7
44%
70-90-6
54%
83-70-7
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