BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
64-56 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
59-63 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4-3 | 3.32 | 1.17 | 103.0 | 108 |
| Jose Soriano | 9-6 | 3.24 | 1.26 | 127.2 | 130 |
4-3
W-L
9-6
3.32
ERA
Ldr 3.24
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
103.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 127.2
108
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 130
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
49%
BLUE JAYS
51%
▲ Edge: +5% (TOR)
RED SOX
56%
Book Odds: -126
BLUE JAYS
46%
Book Odds: +116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 7.0
55%
Under 7.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+15.1%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.6
4
TOR Score
3.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.1
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.2
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.7
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.8 / 5.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109
→
-126 / +116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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