MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
74-47 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
65-57 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 6-7 | 4.30 | 1.27 | 115.0 | 111 |
| Robbie Ray | 10-7 | 3.24 | 1.33 | 127.2 | 109 |
6-7
W-L
10-7
4.30
ERA
Ldr 3.24
1.27 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
115.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 127.2
111 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
109
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
45%
PADRES
55%
▲ Edge: +5.30% (SD)
BREWERS
53%
Book Odds: -111
PADRES
49%
Book Odds: +103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
69%
Under 8.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
San Diego
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+149.0% more
San Diego: 2.3
vs
Milwaukee: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+73.1% more
San Diego: 19.0
vs
Milwaukee: 11.0
Hits (L5)
+50.9% more
San Diego: 10.8
vs
Milwaukee: 7.1
OPS (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.8
3
SD Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.8 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 8.2
7.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
19.0 / 11.0
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.6
5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
-111 / +103
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
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