TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
74-46 | Road
8
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
47-74 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 11-5 | 2.75 | 0.91 | 124.1 | 130 |
| Jack Perkins | 2-8 | 7.04 | 1.45 | 76.2 | 92 |
11-5
W-L
2-8
2.75 Ldr
ERA
7.04
0.91 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
124.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
76.2
130 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
92
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
57%
ATHLETICS
43%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (ATH)
RAYS
69%
Book Odds: -224
ATHLETICS
33%
Book Odds: +207
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.7 (Under)
Over 9.5
35%
Under 9.5
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.8%
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.8%
ATH By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.50
Athletics
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.50
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.8
B
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
A
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+68.0% more
Tampa Bay: 2.8
vs
Athletics: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+58.8% more
Tampa Bay: 3.1
vs
Athletics: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+35.3% more
Tampa Bay: 20.2
vs
Athletics: 13.1
Hits (L5)
+23.6% more
Tampa Bay: 10.7
vs
Athletics: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.3
8
ATH Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 10.7
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.0
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 20.2
15.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.3 / 3.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -187 / +174
→
-224 / +207
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
52%
84-78
60%
97-66
50%
81-80
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
73-81-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-10
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