BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
58-63 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
60-62 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz | 4-11 | 3.76 | 1.32 | 136.1 | 120 |
| Zebby Matthews | 5-8 | 5.23 | 1.34 | 86.0 | 73 |
4-11
W-L
5-8
3.76 Ldr
ERA
5.23
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.34
136.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
86.0
120 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
73
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
59%
TWINS
41%
▲ Edge: +8.60% (BAL)
ORIOLES
51%
Book Odds: -103
TWINS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.5
50%
Under 8.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.6%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Minnesota
3.9
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+45.7% more
Baltimore: 1.9
vs
Minnesota: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+22.1% more
Baltimore: 16.8
vs
Minnesota: 13.1
Home Runs (Season)
+6.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
5
MIN Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.1
14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 16.8
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.0
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
-103 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52%
84-78
53%
83-73
50%
80-81
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-67
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
78-75-9
54%
81-70-5
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-6
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