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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

61-60  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 11 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

50-70  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
@
Carson Whisenhunt
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Whisenhunt

#88 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Brown 3-1 3.53 1.24 58.2 63
Carson Whisenhunt 2-3 7.25 1.84 22.1 20
3-1 W-L 2-3
3.53 Ldr ERA 7.25
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.84
58.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 22.1
63 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 20
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
56%
📊
GIANTS
44%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (SF)
ASTROS 65% Book Odds: -189
GIANTS 37% Book Odds: +173
Book Implied: 65.40% / 36.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 (Over)
Over 8.0 73%
Under 8.0 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Francisco)
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

43.1%

Giants Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.4%

HOU By 3-4 runs

15.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.7
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 HOU @ SF 2 - 1
Aug 11, 2026 HOU @ SF 1 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 HOU @ SF 6 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 SF @ HOU 6 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 SF @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.582
OPS
▲ .706
4
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +17.1% more
Houston: 7.0 vs San Francisco: 5.8
Total Bases (L5) +15.1% more
Houston: 11.8 vs San Francisco: 10.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs San Francisco: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +4350.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.7 1
SF Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.8 / 7.0 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.5 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 11.8 14.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -199 / +163 → -189 / +173 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
HOU
SF
HOU
ML
49% 79-81
50% 81-82
53% 85-75
47% 77-87
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 91-72
52% 83-77
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
45% 70-84-9
46% 68-81-11
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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