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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

47-73  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

64-57  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tomoyuki Sugano
STARTING PITCHER

Tomoyuki Sugano

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mitch Bratt
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Bratt

#60 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tomoyuki Sugano 11-5 4.51 1.26 107.2 61
Mitch Bratt 1-1 3.90 1.52 27.2 21
11-5 W-L 1-1
4.51 ERA Ldr 3.90
1.26 Ldr WHIP 1.52
107.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 27.2
61 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 21
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
42%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (COL)
ROCKIES 40% Book Odds: +152
DIAMONDBACKS 62% Book Odds: -165
Book Implied: 39.70% / 62.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 9.0 42%
Under 9.0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

56.9%

Diamondbacks Cover

43.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

17.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

11.5%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ARI By 3-4 runs

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
4.7
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.80
6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ARI @ COL 12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026 ARI @ COL 5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 ARI @ COL 7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 COL @ ARI 6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 COL @ ARI 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739 ▲
OPS
.720
180 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +12.9% more
Arizona: 14.6 vs Colorado: 12.9
Errors (L5) +90.0% more
Colorado: 1.0 vs Arizona: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +7.8% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
OPS (Season) +1.9%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 4.0 3
ARI Score 4.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.4 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 6.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 12.9 16.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +152 / -165 ↓
20%TICKETS80%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
13%TICKETS87%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
COL
ARI
COL
ML
54% 87-74
60% 97-64
54% 86-74
55% 88-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-64
56% 89-71
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 80-73-8
60% 93-62-6
49% 73-77-9
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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