TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
72-46 | Road
10
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
47-72 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 5-9 | 5.37 | 1.52 | 117.1 | 116 |
| Jacob Lopez | 5-4 | 5.64 | 1.63 | 75.0 | 70 |
5-9
W-L
5-4
5.37 Ldr
ERA
5.64
1.52 Ldr
WHIP
1.63
117.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
75.0
116 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
70
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
44%
ATHLETICS
56%
▲ Edge: +15% (ATH)
RAYS
61%
Book Odds: -155
ATHLETICS
41%
Book Odds: +142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.7 (Under)
Over 10.0
35%
Under 10.0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
11.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ATH By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
4.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5.80
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
A
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.719
169
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+93.9% more
Athletics: 11.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.1
Home Runs (Season)
+14.8% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Hits (L5)
+24.7% more
Tampa Bay: 9.7
vs
Athletics: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+23.1% more
Tampa Bay: 2.4
vs
Athletics: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
10
ATH Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.7
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.8 / 6.1
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 14.1
16.0 / 19.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +140
→
-155 / +142
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TB
ATH
TB
ML
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
52%
84-78
60%
97-66
50%
81-80
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
73-81-9
42%
66-90-5
51%
78-75-10
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