MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
74-45 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
63-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Mize
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | 6-1 | 2.70 | 0.90 | 50.0 | 62 |
| Casey Mize | 4-7 | 3.40 | 1.09 | 90.0 | 86 |
6-1
W-L
4-7
2.70 Ldr
ERA
3.40
0.90 Ldr
WHIP
1.09
50.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 90.0
62
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 86
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
60%
PADRES
40%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (MIL)
BREWERS
54%
Book Odds: -117
PADRES
48%
Book Odds: +109
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 7.0
71%
Under 7.0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
SD By 1-2 runs
15.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
C
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
A
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+43.5% more
Milwaukee: 9.2
vs
San Diego: 5.2
Walks (L5)
+43.3% more
Milwaukee: 4.9
vs
San Diego: 2.8
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.2
2
SD Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.8
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.2 / 9.2
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 13.0
12.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-117 / +109
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…