LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
70-48 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
63-56 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Wrobleski
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Wrobleski | 11-3 | 3.31 | 1.07 | 117.0 | 91 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 10-4 | 2.71 | 1.24 | 136.1 | 92 |
11-3
W-L
10-4
3.31
ERA
Ldr 2.71
1.07 Ldr
WHIP
1.24
117.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 136.1
91
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 92
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
48%
DIAMONDBACKS
52%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (ARI)
DODGERS
57%
Book Odds: -135
DIAMONDBACKS
44%
Book Odds: +125
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.5
50%
Under 8.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
LAD By 1-2 runs
17.9%
LAD By 3-4 runs
12.7%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.9%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
4.6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026
LAD @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026
ARI @ LAD
5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ARI @ LAD
9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762
▲
OPS
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+13.0% more
Arizona: 13.7
vs
Los Angeles: 12.2
Home Runs (L5)
+39.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.3
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.3
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
4.3
2
ARI Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 7.9
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.5
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 12.2
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +108
→
-135 / +125
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54%
87-74
56%
92-73
54%
86-74
48%
79-87
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
98-67
56%
89-71
43%
72-94
TTL
52%
80-73-8
48%
77-82-6
49%
73-77-9
44%
70-90-6
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