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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

57-61  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Aug 9 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

59-59  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cade Povich
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Povich

#37 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Povich 2-1 3.91 1.34 25.1 19
Kumar Rocker 4-8 4.08 1.33 108.0 98
2-1 W-L 4-8
3.91 Ldr ERA 4.08
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.33
25.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 108.0
19 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 98
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
49%
📊
RANGERS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.50% (BAL)
ORIOLES 46% Book Odds: +119
RANGERS 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 45.70% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

51.0%

Rangers Cover

49.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
4.6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
4
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 BAL @ TEX 10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 BAL @ TEX 1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026 TEX @ BAL 3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TEX @ BAL 8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Texas TEX
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.711
OPS
▲ .713
199 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +12.3% more
Texas: 6.4 vs Baltimore: 5.7
Walks (L5) +12.3% more
Texas: 3.1 vs Baltimore: 2.8
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Texas: 24.2% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Texas: 31.7% vs Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.5 10
TEX Score 4.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 5.7 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.3 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 10.2 13.0 / 31.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146 → +119 / -128 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
36%TICKETS64%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BAL
TEX
BAL
ML
53% 86-76
53% 83-73
57% 91-70
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 92-70
61% 95-60-1
61% 98-63
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 78-70-14
54% 81-70-5
55% 81-66-14
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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