MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
58-61 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
74-44 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Connor Prielipp
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 3-5 | 4.75 | 1.31 | 77.2 | 81 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 11-5 | 1.63 | 0.73 | 127.0 | 195 |
3-5
W-L
11-5
4.75
ERA
Ldr 1.63
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 0.73
77.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 127.0
81
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 195
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
25%
BREWERS
75%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (MIL)
TWINS
30%
Book Odds: +239
BREWERS
73%
Book Odds: -268
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.2 (Over)
Over 7.0
71%
Under 7.0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIN By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
5.4%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.1
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
6.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.2
A
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 7, 2026
MIN @ MIL
8 - 6
May 17, 2026
MIL @ MIN
4 - 5
May 16, 2026
MIL @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.403
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.720
OPS
▲
.743
187
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+16.0% more
Milwaukee: 3.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.4%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
OPS (Season)
+2.3%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.1
3
MIL Score
6.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.0
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.0
11.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 12.5
16.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.3
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +200 / -247
→
+239 / -268
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIN
MIL
MIN
ML
62%
101-61
52%
84-78
52%
84-78
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
94-68
59%
95-67
48%
78-84
59%
95-66
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
78-75-9
50%
77-77-8
53%
80-72-9
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