TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
56-63 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
63-56 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 3-2 | 5.11 | 1.68 | 37.0 | 28 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 10-5 | 3.36 | 1.16 | 136.2 | 164 |
3-2
W-L
10-5
5.11
ERA
Ldr 3.36
1.68
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
37.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 136.2
28
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 164
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
41%
PHILLIES
59%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
32%
Book Odds: +211
PHILLIES
70%
Book Odds: -234
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 8.5
59%
Under 8.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.692
OPS
▲
.724
152
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+98.1% more
Philadelphia: 6.2
vs
Toronto: 3.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.6
vs
Toronto: 8.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
6
PHI Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.8
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.2
15.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 14.5
16.0 / 12.0
Walks
6.2 / 3.1
3.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -191
→
+211 / -234
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
59%
97-67
46%
74-87
49%
80-84
50%
80-80
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
90-71
51%
83-81
49%
79-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-76-9
45%
70-85-5
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