NEW YORK
METSNYM
52-67 | Road
11
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
58-62 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 3-5 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 97.2 | 95 |
| Jared Jones | 2-3 | 4.02 | 1.11 | 56.0 | 62 |
3-5
W-L
2-3
4.33
ERA
Ldr 4.02
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
97.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
56.0
95 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
62
AI Model Win Probability
METS
70%
PIRATES
30%
▲ Edge: +25.90% (NYM)
METS
44%
Book Odds: +129
PIRATES
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
66%
Under 8.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
3.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.705
OPS
▲
.734
204
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
New York: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+45.6% more
New York: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.7
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+8.8% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.8
11
PIT Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.1
4.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.3
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 13.6
8.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.7 / 5.0
0.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +111 / -134
→
+129 / -140
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52%
82-77
50%
79-80
52%
85-78
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
81-82
49%
78-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
79-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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