ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
71-47 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
66-52 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | 7-4 | 3.67 | 1.34 | 108.0 | 92 |
| Cam Schlittler | 10-6 | 2.26 | 0.95 | 139.2 | 171 |
7-4
W-L
10-6
3.67
ERA
Ldr 2.26
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 0.95
108.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.2
92
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 171
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
YANKEES
62%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (NYY)
BRAVES
44%
Book Odds: +128
YANKEES
58%
Book Odds: -139
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.7 (Under)
Over 8.5
35%
Under 8.5
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
2.7
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
4.1
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
ATL @ NYY
4 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
NYY @ ATL
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
NYY @ ATL
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
New York
NYY
1
Games Played
1
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.757
OPS
▲
1.041
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+141.3% more
New York: 4.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+80.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.2% more
New York: 11.5
vs
Atlanta: 9.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
2.7
2
NYY Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.2
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.5 / 9.3
9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 16.4
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.0
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -150
→
+128 / -139
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ATL
NYY
ATL
ML
47%
76-85
46%
77-90
52%
85-77
54%
90-78
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
96-71
53%
86-76
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
53%
83-73-11
53%
82-72-7
49%
76-80-11
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