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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

70-46  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 9:50 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

56-62  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Casey Legumina
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Legumina

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Legumina 2-2 4.28 1.28 48.1 33
George Kirby 8-9 3.76 1.28 127.0 110
2-2 W-L 8-9
4.28 ERA Ldr 3.76
1.28 WHIP 1.28
48.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 127.0
33 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
55%
📊
MARINERS
45%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (TB)
RAYS 44% Book Odds: +125
MARINERS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 44.40% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 7.0 62%
Under 7.0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

55.0%

Mariners Cover

45.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.0%

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.5%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
3.8
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.80
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
B
Sim u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 TB @ SEA 4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 TB @ SEA 3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026 TB @ SEA 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026 SEA @ TB 8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 SEA @ TB 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.728 ▲
OPS
.693
169
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.7% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5 vs Seattle: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +36.4% more
Tampa Bay: 14.3 vs Seattle: 9.1
Hits (L5) +22.1% more
Tampa Bay: 7.9 vs Seattle: 6.1
Walks (L5) +17.9% more
Tampa Bay: 3.4 vs Seattle: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.3 3
SEA Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.9 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.2 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 14.3 15.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.4 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -121 → +125 / -136 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
59%TICKETS41%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
50% 81-81
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 98-64
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
TTL
56% 85-67-10
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-71-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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