Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Padres HOU @ SD

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

60-58  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 7:15 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

61-57  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peter Lambert 8-5 3.06 1.13 108.2 108
Michael King 6-8 3.45 1.20 130.1 114
8-5 W-L 6-8
3.06 Ldr ERA 3.45
1.13 Ldr WHIP 1.20
108.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 130.1
108 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 114
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
51%
📊
PADRES
49%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (HOU)
ASTROS 48% Book Odds: +110
PADRES 54% Book Odds: -119
Book Implied: 47.60% / 54.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Houston Astros (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

51.0%

Padres Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.9%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
4.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 HOU @ SD 2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 HOU @ SD 2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 HOU @ SD 6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025 SD @ HOU 3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025 SD @ HOU 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.582
OPS
▲ .925
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +75.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs San Diego: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +54.6% more
Houston: 1.3 vs San Diego: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +27.7% more
Houston: 7.5 vs San Diego: 5.4
Total Bases (L5) +24.6% more
Houston: 16.9 vs San Diego: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.5 2
SD Score 4.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 10.6 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 7.5 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 16.9 8.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +110 / -119 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
HOU
SD
HOU
ML
51% 85-83
50% 81-82
51% 85-82
47% 77-87
ATS
54% 91-77
56% 91-72
55% 92-75
55% 90-74
TTL
51% 82-80-6
45% 70-84-9
54% 86-74-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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