TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
56-62 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
62-56 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 1-4 | 7.92 | 1.63 | 30.2 | 23 |
| Aaron Nola | 3-9 | 5.55 | 1.44 | 120.0 | 121 |
1-4
W-L
3-9
7.92
ERA
Ldr 5.55
1.63
WHIP
Ldr 1.44
30.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 120.0
23
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 121
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
43%
PHILLIES
57%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
39%
Book Odds: +156
PHILLIES
63%
Book Odds: -170
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 9.5
62%
Under 9.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Philadelphia
5.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
B
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.692
OPS
▲
.724
152
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+97.2% more
Philadelphia: 6.3
vs
Toronto: 3.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
7
PHI Score
5.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.2
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.1
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.8
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.3
18.0 / 17.0
Walks
6.3 / 3.2
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -162
→
+156 / -170
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 10
→
9.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
59%
97-67
46%
74-87
49%
80-84
50%
80-80
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
90-71
51%
83-81
49%
79-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-76-9
45%
70-85-5
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