Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Red Sox ATH @ BOS

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

46-71  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

64-52  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Gage Jump
STARTING PITCHER

Gage Jump

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jake Bennett
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Bennett

#64 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gage Jump 4-7 4.59 1.47 66.2 73
Jake Bennett 7-4 2.90 1.01 71.1 50
4-7 W-L 7-4
4.59 ERA Ldr 2.90
1.47 WHIP Ldr 1.01
66.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 71.1
73 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 50
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
37%
📊
RED SOX
63%
▲ Edge: +8.60% (ATH)
ATHLETICS 29% Book Odds: +251
RED SOX 74% Book Odds: -282
Book Implied: 28.50% / 73.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 47%
Under 9.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

64.6%

Red Sox Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
7
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 ATH @ BOS 4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026 ATH @ BOS 7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 ATH @ BOS 1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026 BOS @ ATH 5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 BOS @ ATH 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.719 ▲
OPS
.409
194 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +244.1% more
Boston: 4.7 vs Athletics: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +142.0% more
Boston: 21.3 vs Athletics: 8.8
Hits (L5) +121.5% more
Boston: 12.7 vs Athletics: 5.7
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Boston: 1.6 vs Athletics: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.5 7
BOS Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 12.7 / 5.7 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 10.8 7.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 21.3 / 8.8 14.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.7 / 1.4 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +194 / -239 → +251 / -282 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
6%TICKETS94%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATH
BOS
ATH
ML
50% 80-80
59% 95-67
47% 76-87
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-67
52% 84-78
48% 79-84
50% 81-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 84-73-5
47% 74-83-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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