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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

70-47  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 3:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

66-51  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Chris Sale
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Sale

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Sale 12-6 2.08 1.02 117.0 143
Gerrit Cole 5-5 3.42 1.10 73.2 78
12-6 W-L 5-5
2.08 Ldr ERA 3.42
1.02 Ldr WHIP 1.10
117.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 73.2
143 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 78
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
53%
📊
YANKEES
47%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (NYY)
BRAVES 61% Book Odds: -155
YANKEES 41% Book Odds: +142
Book Implied: 60.80% / 41.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 7.5 45%
Under 7.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
BravesATL (-1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+1.5)
New York Yankees (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

47.0%

Yankees Cover

53.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ATL By 3-4 runs

14.4%

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.9%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.50
3.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.50
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Braves (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.7
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 ATL @ NYY 2 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 ATL @ NYY 4 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 ATL @ NYY 2 - 3
Jul 20, 2025 NYY @ ATL 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2025 NYY @ ATL 12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
New York NYY
1
Games Played
1
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.757
OPS
▲ 1.041
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +70.0% more
Atlanta: 0.7 vs New York: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +48.4% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +36.5% more
Atlanta: 17.1 vs New York: 10.9
Hits (L5) +33.2% more
Atlanta: 9.2 vs New York: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.5 4
NYY Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 9.2 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 9.0 13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 17.1 18.0 / 15.0
Walks 5.1 / 2.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +112 → -155 / +142 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
52%TICKETS48%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ATL
NYY
ATL
ML
47% 76-85
46% 77-90
52% 85-77
54% 90-78
ATS
59% 95-66
57% 96-71
53% 86-76
52% 87-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 83-73-11
53% 82-72-7
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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