ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-71 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
64-51 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Perkins | 2-7 | 6.72 | 1.40 | 73.2 | 89 |
| Payton Tolle | 6-6 | 3.30 | 1.15 | 101.0 | 110 |
2-7
W-L
6-6
6.72
ERA
Ldr 3.30
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
73.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 101.0
89
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 110
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
34%
RED SOX
66%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
30%
Book Odds: +239
RED SOX
73%
Book Odds: -267
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.5
54%
Under 8.5
46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
ATH By 1-2 runs
14.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
8.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
5.3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Red Sox
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.719
▲
OPS
.409
194
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+121.6% more
Boston: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+115.0% more
Boston: 1.9
vs
Athletics: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+89.0% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+86.8% more
Boston: 20.0
vs
Athletics: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.5
1
BOS Score
5.3
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
11.5 / 7.6
15.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.2
5.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
20.0 / 10.7
24.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.0
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +219 / -251
→
+239 / -267
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATH
BOS
ATH
ML
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
47%
76-87
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-67
52%
84-78
48%
79-84
50%
81-80
TTL
46%
72-83-5
54%
84-73-5
47%
74-83-6
42%
66-90-5
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