TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
55-62 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
62-55 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano | 9-6 | 3.29 | 1.25 | 123.0 | 127 |
| Zack Wheeler | 10-2 | 2.49 | 0.91 | 105.0 | 126 |
9-6
W-L
10-2
3.29
ERA
Ldr 2.49
1.25
WHIP
Ldr 0.91
123.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
105.0
127 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
126
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
44%
PHILLIES
56%
▲ Edge: +8.20% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
36%
Book Odds: +181
PHILLIES
67%
Book Odds: -199
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 7.5
59%
Under 7.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
Philadelphia
4.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
B
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.692
OPS
▲
.724
152
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+93.8% more
Philadelphia: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 2.3
Total Bases (L5)
+36.2% more
Philadelphia: 15.6
vs
Toronto: 11.5
Hits (L5)
+32.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.2
vs
Toronto: 7.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.8
5
PHI Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.2 / 7.8
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.8
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 11.5
7.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.3
10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +192 / -217
→
+181 / -199
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
59%
97-67
46%
74-87
49%
80-84
50%
80-80
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
90-71
51%
83-81
49%
79-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-76-9
45%
70-85-5
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