SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
60-56 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
61-55 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kohl Drake
#58 | P| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 6-5 | 5.18 | 1.45 | 104.1 | 92 |
| Kohl Drake | 0-0 | 4.85 | 1.46 | 13.0 | 12 |
6-5
W-L
0-0
5.18
ERA
Ldr 4.85
1.45 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
104.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
13.0
92 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
12
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
59%
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
▲ Edge: +7.30% (SD)
PADRES
51%
Book Odds: -105
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 9.0
72%
Under 9.0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
5.3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
A
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.6% more
San Diego: 8.0
vs
Arizona: 6.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.2
5
ARI Score
5.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.2
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 8.0
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 11.6
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.4
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -109 / -111
→
-105 / -103
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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