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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

59-56  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Aug 5 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

61-54  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mitch Bratt
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Bratt

#60 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Mize 4-6 2.70 0.99 86.2 85
Mitch Bratt 0-1 5.23 1.84 20.2 12
4-6 W-L 0-1
2.70 Ldr ERA 5.23
0.99 Ldr WHIP 1.84
86.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 20.2
85 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 12
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
72%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
28%
▲ Edge: +14.20% (SD)
PADRES 58% Book Odds: -137
DIAMONDBACKS 44% Book Odds: +126
Book Implied: 57.80% / 44.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.5 67%
Under 8.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

73.4%

Diamondbacks Cover

26.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.1%

ARI By 1-2 runs

12.1%

ARI By 3-4 runs

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
3.9
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Diamondbacks Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SD 4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026 ARI @ SD 7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026 ARI @ SD 11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026 SD @ ARI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 SD @ ARI 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Arizona ARI
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +30.6% more
San Diego: 10.8 vs Arizona: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season) +24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season) +20.5%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.1%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.4 4
ARI Score 3.9 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 10.8 15.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.0 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 13.9 22.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -105 → -137 / +126 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 8.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54% 87-74
51% 85-83
54% 86-74
51% 85-82
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 91-77
56% 89-71
55% 92-75
TTL
52% 80-73-8
51% 82-80-6
49% 73-77-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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