ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
57-58 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
64-51 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Will Warren
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 11-6 | 3.72 | 1.22 | 118.2 | 86 |
| Will Warren | 8-5 | 4.14 | 1.36 | 108.2 | 109 |
11-6
W-L
8-5
3.72 Ldr
ERA
4.14
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
118.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
108.2
86
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 109
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
46%
YANKEES
54%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (STL)
CARDINALS
42%
Book Odds: +136
YANKEES
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 8.5
46%
Under 8.5
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
STL @ NYY
3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026
STL @ NYY
0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026
STL @ NYY
13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025
NYY @ STL
8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
NYY @ STL
12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.691
OPS
▲
1.041
167
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+102.7% more
New York: 9.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
New York: 2.2
vs
St. Louis: 1.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.6%
New York: 59.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Batting Avg (Season)
+13.6%
New York: 37.5%
vs
St. Louis: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
3
NYY Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.5
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 13.8
6.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.9
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+136 / -148
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
STL
NYY
STL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
85-74
52%
85-77
52%
84-77
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
89-70
53%
86-76
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
68-81-10
53%
82-72-7
50%
76-75-10
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