Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Dodgers BOS @ LAD

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

59-51  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 1 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-42  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Payton Tolle 6-6 3.30 1.11 6.0 7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 11-6 2.76 0.90 8.0 3
6-6 W-L 11-6
3.30 ERA Ldr 2.76
1.11 WHIP Ldr 0.90
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 8.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
40%
📊
DODGERS
60%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (BOS)
RED SOX 40% Book Odds: +153
DODGERS 65% Book Odds: -187
Book Implied: 39.50% / 65.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.0 59%
Under 7.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

39.2%

Dodgers Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.1%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
BOSTON
4.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 BOS @ LAD 8 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 BOS @ LAD 3 - 2
Jul 31, 2026 BOS @ LAD 9 - 4
Jul 27, 2025 LAD @ BOS 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 LAD @ BOS 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.409
OPS
▲ .762
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +35.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +17.9%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.4 3
LAD Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 9.6 10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.4 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 15.2 14.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -123 → +153 / -187 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
BOS
LAD
BOS
ML
56% 92-73
50% 80-80
48% 79-87
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-67
43% 72-94
48% 79-84
TTL
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-5
44% 70-90-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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