ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
59-52 | Road
12
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
56-56 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kohl Drake
#58 | P@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | 0-0 | 4.85 | 1.44 | 4.0 | 6 |
| Parker Messick | 8-6 | 2.57 | 1.04 | 4.1 | 6 |
0-0
W-L
8-6
4.85
ERA
Ldr 2.57
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
GUARDIANS
55%
▲ Edge: +3% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
Book Odds: +136
GUARDIANS
65%
Book Odds: -185
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 8.5
45%
Under 8.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
11.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.6
ARIZONA
Cleveland
4.2
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
ARI @ CLE
0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
ARI @ CLE
12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
ARI @ CLE
4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025
CLE @ ARI
2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025
CLE @ ARI
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
166
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+57.1% more
Cleveland: 4.3
vs
Arizona: 2.8
Errors (L5)
+13.0% more
Cleveland: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.5% more
Cleveland: 6.6
vs
Arizona: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+30.6% more
Arizona: 11.7
vs
Cleveland: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.6
12
CLE Score
4.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 8.2
14.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.5
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 6.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.1 / 11.7
23.0 / 28.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
+136 / -185
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ARI
CLE
ARI
ML
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
49%
80-82
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
88-71-2
52%
80-73-8
43%
69-90-2
49%
73-77-9
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