MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
56-55 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
53-58 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 4-8 | 5.22 | 1.32 | 5.0 | 10 |
| Bryce Miller | 4-5 | 2.80 | 0.92 | 5.1 | 3 |
4-8
W-L
4-5
5.22
ERA
Ldr 2.80
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 0.92
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.1
10 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
27%
MARINERS
73%
▲ Edge: +10.30% (SEA)
TWINS
42%
Book Odds: +139
MARINERS
63%
Book Odds: -168
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
MIN By 1-2 runs
11.8%
MIN By 3-4 runs
6.3%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.2
MINNESOTA
Seattle
5.8
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Mariners
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
B
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
MIN @ SEA
6 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
MIN @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 31, 2026
MIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Apr 29, 2026
SEA @ MIN
5 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SEA @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720
▲
OPS
.693
187
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.0% more
Seattle: 1.0
vs
Minnesota: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+42.7% more
Seattle: 13.2
vs
Minnesota: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.7% more
Seattle: 8.8
vs
Minnesota: 6.4
Hits (L5)
+29.4% more
Seattle: 7.8
vs
Minnesota: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.2
5
SEA Score
5.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.1
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.4
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 9.2
9.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -179
→
+139 / -168
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIN
SEA
MIN
ML
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-71-10
53%
80-72-9
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