TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
57-42 | Road
7
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
46-54 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 8-2 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 6.0 | -- |
| Dylan Cease | 6-4 | 2.67 | 1.13 | 6.0 | 7 |
8-2
W-L
6-4
2.59 Ldr
ERA
2.67
1.12 Ldr
WHIP
1.13
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
41%
BLUE JAYS
59%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
4.5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+73.9% more
Tampa Bay: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+34.3% more
Tampa Bay: 14.7
vs
Toronto: 9.7
Home Runs (L5)
+30.1% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+28.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.4
vs
Toronto: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
7
TOR Score
4.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 8.4
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.5
2.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 14.7
8.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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