ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
45-46 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
45-46 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Gallen
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | None-None | 6.34 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.34
ERA
Ldr 0.96
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
65%
PADRES
35%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
14.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.9
ARIZONA
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+46.7% more
Arizona: 1.4
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+22.0% more
Arizona: 14.3
vs
San Diego: 11.1
Walks (L5)
+129.9% more
San Diego: 3.4
vs
Arizona: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.9
1
SD Score
3.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.2
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.5
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 14.3
10.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.4 / 1.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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