Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Rangers LAA @ TEX

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

36-56  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jul 7 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

46-45  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Alexander
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Alexander

#13 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 4.35 -- 0.2 --
Tyler Alexander None-None 2.37 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.35 ERA Ldr 2.37
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
40%
📊
RANGERS
60%
ANGELS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Texas)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

38.2%

Rangers Cover

61.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.8%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.0%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 0
Aug 21, 2026 LAA @ TEX 1 - 2
Aug 13, 2026 TEX @ LAA 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 TEX @ LAA 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.679
OPS
▲ .713
154
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +63.0% more
Texas: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +33.5% more
Texas: 13.6 vs Los Angeles: 10.2
Home Runs (Season) +18.8% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Hits (L5) +12.5% more
Texas: 7.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 3
TEX Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 6.8 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 9.7 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 10.2 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
LAA
TEX
LAA
ML
53% 86-76
59% 96-66
57% 91-70
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-65
61% 98-63
51% 82-80
TTL
53% 78-70-14
53% 83-74-5
55% 81-66-14
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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