NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
50-41 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
53-36 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Headrick
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Headrick | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 1.78 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.42 Ldr
ERA
1.78
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
62%
RAYS
38%
YANKEES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
4.1
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+68.2% more
New York: 3.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+49.6% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Home Runs (L5)
+40.7% more
New York: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.6% more
New York: 12.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.5
4
TB Score
4.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 4.7
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 12.5
6.0 / 17.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 10.5
18.0 / 15.0
Walks
1.0 / 3.1
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58%
95-68
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-72-7
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